Analysis of industry of Chinese industry gas and relevant trend are sentenced beforehand

Introductive

Develop as economy, industrial gas is taken seriously more and more and apply extensively, besides this convenient sex that besides its oneself has and extensive sex, this domain still holds the flexibility that has provided and defence sex concurrently.

Above all, industrial gas regards the blood of “ industry as ” , demand is had successional, and downstream and numerous, include steely metallurgy, chemical industry, food, medical treatment to wait, there are significant position and effect in national economy, it is relatively typical defence sex trade.

Next, the operation mode of industrial gas has “ to enter can attack, remove the outstanding property that can defend ” , the client passes big dosage 15-30 year the ready money that long-term agreement provides stability flows, in economic boom when be benefited the client’s demand promotes small dosage, retail gas measures valence to rise together, agile and bouncy.

Additional, set out from financial angle, face demand of same air feed, in the client durative below management premise, the cash of industrial gas business flows present worth to be more than commonly provide business of empty cent equipment only. In the meantime, in Euramerican hind industrialized times makes make one’s fortune with air depart equipment after that the growing method of tycoon of gas of industry of before transition is the “ of industrial gas provider 4 big ” also proved industrial gas is supplied is an exceedingly meaning, and it is one has latent capacity to be able to appear the business of company of tycoon of market prise of one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two dollars.

Management mode: Long assist relative stability, retail and rich flexibility

The essence of industrial gas preparation is wait for the helium gas in air, oxygen, nitrogen aeriform depart extract. Accordingly the core of industrial gas preparation is air depart equipment, its core component has turbine compressor and heat exchanger of board wing type to wait. The raw material that industrial gas makes is air and report, according to survey, 80% what charge of electricity holds production cost about, through air separate facility departs of all kinds gas, pass conduit, tank car or gas cylinder store carry, be like chart 1.

Main component is the preparation of industrial gas two kinds of means, build plant oneself air feed and outside the bag gives tripartite air feed. The commercial pattern that establishs correspondence of equipment air feed oneself is a client from air manufacturer place buys separate facility so that separate facility carry reachs air to plan to build base, contract base construction tripartite, the project just is offerred with empty cent equipment just can be same square or two, the client owns air depart facility this one heavy asset, at the same time oneself bear the profit and loss that divides equipment base for nothing. The commercial pattern that air feed hires outside tripartite is a client be in from supplier of tripartite gas directly according to the quantity valence buys gas, if require manier gas, need nearby to build empty cent base, equipment of so empty cent belongs to aeriform supplier, and the construction that aeriform supplier is in charge of base and operation. The industrial gas business that often says inside course of study, what point to actually is outside the business of the supplier of tripartite gas in including air feed business, be like chart 2.

Aeriform marketing is with the spot the project that make energy of life is a foundation normally. What carry hard as a result of gas is characteristic, the larger to industrial gas demand plant area such as large petrifaction, chemical industry, steely factory can choose nearby to build air depart facility in the spot in order to supply the industrial gas with constant in a steady stream. Because this gas offers chamber of commerce to rely on the spot to make gas project create subsidiary or base in project place above all, depart in order to find a place for with operation air equipment. Through signing 15-30 with big client year the contract of long-term air feed that differ, the ready money that provides stability flows, obtain the spot to make the basic investment redound of gas project, be like chart 3.

To enrage conduit production process medium by-product makes full use of, derive retail gas sale. Be restricted by the place of the mechanism that make energy of life that distributes equipment for nothing, liquid oxygen, liquid nitrogen is the by-product that conduit enrages. The consideration carries cost, if radius can be carried all round project base (be in commonly 400km less than) inside the client that has the industrial gas that needs relatively lesser dimensions fitly, aeriform provider can sell by-product take advantage of an opportunity piece in order to achieve additional earnings.

Hopeful of contract of long-term air feed becomes the ” of “ cushion rubber in cycle of economic be issued to lower levels

The contract of long-term air feed that the big client of aeriform project and aeriform supplier sign is to illuminate normally pay do not view a contract (“Take-or-Pay” ) . According to this kind of contract, no matter whether the buyer of project product buys the product of the company, buyer is accountability pay an agreement right amount product payment for goods. Aeriform supplier controls air base in each spot corresponding a 15-30 year the long-term sale contract that differ, the minimum that set a client uses tolerance and the aeriform price that are parameter adjustment with the element such as electrovalency, price level. Although the client appears,the problem of producer face is brought about did not achieve lowest to use tolerance inside that month, client still accountability the lowest that goes up according to the agreement pays the fee that month with tolerance computation. Pay through illuminating do not view a contract, can make sure each spot makes gas project win basic get one’s own back, average project return rate is controlled in 10%-15% .

Supplier of gas of industry of support of contract of long-term air feed is in what economy has relative stability in periodic wave motion to run show. As a result of industrial gas industry this is planted distinctive commercial pattern, almost the client that base of each gas project relied on a long-term agreement, the ready money that provides stability for aeriform supplier flows, industry cycle is fluctuant and lesser. As we have learned, in period of crisis of 2008-2009 annuity be in harmony, company of 4 air system (product of air of liquefaction of Lynd group, Pulaikesi, France, United States air) industrial gas income was in each company to all occupy 70% above 2009, among them the industrial gas income of American air product is occupied than for 72.41% , income of gas of law fluid empty industry is occupied than for 85.10% , two companies income fell compared to the same period respectively 2009 20.72% with 13.35% , industrial gas income is occupied dovisher management show is had in comparing higher company to fluctuate in economic cycle, see chart 4.

Long assist income is occupied be in than taller aeriform supplier the performance in cycle of economic be issued to lower levels is more steady. In cycle of economic be issued to lower levels, the volume price of retail gas all is met bear pressure, and long assist the ready money that can provide relative stability for the company flows, because this is long assist income is occupied be in than taller aeriform supplier the performance in cycle of economic be issued to lower levels is more steady.

Hopeful of retail gas business goes up in economy volume price is benefited in cycle double litre

Area is retail of aeriform price fluctuant and main the effect that suffers pattern of area supply and demand, more sensitive to demand. From cost and economy angle consideration, retail gas has the restriction of carriage radius normally, accordingly retail gas shows extent price difference, its extent value is main by this area pattern of medium aeriform supply and demand is decided. The tigidity that as a result of industrial gas supply carries is stronger, inside limits of location of the some inside short time increase demand of many gas supply newly harder, because this area is retail aeriform price is more sensitive to demand. Demand end covers industry of most manufacturing industry, accordingly demand changes or add with the GDP of area fast closely related, the limit change of demand basically depends on the manufacturing industry growth of area and boom circumstance, curve of retail supply and demand is like chart 5.

Company of gas of transition of equipment manufacturer apt and have successful case

Can successful transition is Europe and bibcock of equipment of American history proof aeriform company. 20 centuries 8, 90 time, separate equipment production company is down the is a delegate with Lynd group and company of American air product air on international in succession swim aeriform product supplier develops, and had held larger dominant position on industrial gas international market, and at present aeriform business has become his main income source, see chart 6.

Discuss: Project of same air feed, is selling equipment earn still to sell gas earn more much?

We think, industrial gas tycoon in succession the basic driving force from supplier of gas of industry of equipment manufacturer transition is the demand of long-term air feed that faces same client, the present worth that the cash reserve in a bank that acquires through selling equipment flows should be below most circumstance the present worth that the cash that is less than sale gas to obtain flows. Accordingly, we want to be quantified through a case discuss to go up in project of same air feed, the cash reserve in a bank that sells industry gas flows present worth whether the cash reserve in a bank that prep above sells equipment flows present worth.

We are with Yan mine project exemple discuss. Issue a share publicly according to the blame July 2013 beforehand case (edit draft) , the means collect that the company issued a share publicly with be not 2013 930 million in investment of Yan mine project, odd 20 million yuan with own reserves contributive. According to Bloomberg analysis, the financing cost of Hangzhou oxygen was 2013 9.25% , 10 years period calm danger interest rate is 3.17% , lead now through adding authority to be able to get this purpose to fold for 9.12% . Through calculating, can get standinged 2013 of the beginning of the year when on the dot, in cycle of 15 years of contracts, take no account of value of final device damage to change showing amount, the present worth of integral project is 139 million yuan, see chart 7.

The cash reserve in a bank that sells industry gas flows the cash reserve in a bank that remarkable prep above sells present worth equipment to circulate present worth. We sell a 62500 stere only in the company on Yan mine project suppose / the air depart equipment of the hour. According to survey, company dimensions was 100 thousand 2018 / the price of empty cent equipment of the hour is 300 million yuan. The price that consideration technology progress brings is reduced, we assume 2013 sixty-two thousand five hundred / the price of empty cent equipment of the hour also is 300 million yuan. According to company money newspaper, the net interest rate that assigned equipment marketing for nothing 2013 is 8.23% , the net interest rate that we sell this suppose also is 8.23% . The imprest rhythm that considers firm client reachs the cash outlay rhythm of charge and cost, in order to do not have venture interest rate 3.17% fold now, the present worth that gets the company sells the actual profit ready money that distributes equipment for nothing to flow is 23.42 million yuan, 17% what be sale industry gas only.

The biggest risk of agreement of long-term air feed is to buy buyer to wait for a reason to cannot continue to fulfil a contract because of going bankrupt. Although sale equipment is connecting the photograph below general reason condition to compare a sale,gas gains profit fewer, but the cycle returning a money that sells gas is longer, once be stopped accidentally,be like a project, the company is in the loss on the project is bigger. Calculate according to us, although consider to add up to what sell off with the equipment after be being stopped accidentally to return a money, it is with Yan mine project exemple also need to last after contract become effective 10 years ability obtains air feed accrual. Because this Hangzhou oxygen apt sells air depart equipment directly to the client of business ability impeach, receive income and reduce its in order to obtain to assume the risk that client follow-up goes bankrupt continuously. And confront the client that has stabler business ability, can gain profit through agreement of long-term air feed more.

Hopeful reached market of Chinese industry gas 2022 nearly 30 billion

Dimensions of market of dollar industry gas is added fast add with GDP fast it is positive involves a concern. We pass 1994-2017 year of the aeriform income summation of company of gas of 4 big industry add fast add with world GDP fast undertake regression, p-value<0.01, the result is remarkable. Dimensions of industrial gas market is added fast it is GDP is added roughly fast 1.4 times, chart 8.

Hopeful of dimensions of market of Chinese industry gas grows more quickly, hopeful reached nearly 30 billion dollar 2022. According to Chinese industry website, dimensions of market of Chinese industry gas reached 17.9 billion dollar 2017. Be opposite according to world bank Chinese 2018-2022 year GDP is added fast forecast the regression with us, we predict 18-22 year CAGR of market of Chinese industry gas is 10.44% , to 2022 hopeful attains scale of nearly 30 billion dollar, chart 9.

Transverse quite: Permeability of the bag outside Chinese industry gas is in inferior level

Whole world of dimensions of market of Chinese industry gas is had rate is remarkable under Chinese industry whole world of production production value is occupied than. Industrial gas is by analogy “ blood ” of industry, it is one of element of industry of national economy base, be applied extensively at domain of industrial manufacturing industry, accordingly, we feel production production value and whole world of dimensions of industrial gas market occupy the industry of each country to match than answering. Chinese industry production production value occupied global industry to make production value achieve 2017 26.62% , and whole world of Chinese industry gas was had 2017 rate it is only 15.84% , prospective growth potential is greater, be like chart 10, 11.

Rate of the bag outside Chinese industry gas is far 2018 under the developed country. According to Chinese industry website and relevant survey, rate of the bag outside Chinese industry gas was about 2018 45% , compare a developed country of 80% outside bag rate still has bigger difference. Because this predicts, to 2020 tripartite spot makes gas make gas be occupied mediumly in integral spot than will be being achieved 57% , chart 12.

From cost and security angle consideration, economy of the bag outside business is outstanding

Bag behavior can obtain lower cost, taller operation efficiency and safe safeguard outside. Industry of gas of mature market industry also was experienced by the process of the bag outside be being abstained, main consideration element has:

1) cost factor: According to IAOP, bag behavior can save the cost of 9% at least outside, and efficiency and quality rise 15% .

2) operation efficiency: As we have learned, a 800 thousand stere / the device of the hour, american air product needs 16 operator only, and the operator that normal factory needs to deploy 50 above. At the same time outside bag behavior can let a factory depart from air in weighing asset to buy deed, liberate of equipment come out, will finite capital is centered at advocate course of study, reduce the risk of deficit of operation of empty cent equipment, improve operation efficiency. Chart 13.

3) safe element: Bag behavior can make divide equipment to leave operation in the operation of professional for nothing outside, have taller safe safeguard, also can obtain the processing of seasonable major at the same time in be or get out of danger. It is reported, henan saved group of chemical industry of energy of Henan of 3 gorge city on July 20, 2019 air of factory of justice horse aerification is detached workshop happening explodes, the accident causes 2 people death, 18 people are weighed, 12 people break couplet. This accident or because empty subsystem exceeds,press be caused by, separate facility belongs to the air that produces explosion abstain air feed base. Hopeful of these 3 elements drives market of Chinese industry gas outside bag rate promotes continuously.

Burgeoning industry is arisen, drive gas of tripartite industry to supply mode development

The burgeoning industry such as Chinese semiconductor, smooth hot season, electron grows quickly, increase gradually to the demand of industrial gas, and burgeoning property is right industrial gas demand more diversification, onefold gas demand is lesser, but demand sort is more, this will drive Chinese professional gas to supply the development of the market further. According to ” Chinese electron gas develops general situation ” data, the 5% ～ that aeriform cost took IC total cost of material about 2018 6% , although look,be like occupy than not quite, but the stand or fall that decides semiconductor device function greatly. Every raise electronic gas purity an amount class, prompt the flight with qualitative semiconductor device quickly, electronic gas because its are tall the requirement of purity high quality, the aeriform supplier that needs major is offerred. Accordingly, the development of the burgeoning domain such as semiconductor, smooth hot season, grow the abidance that the market includes outside driving Chinese industry gas.